![]() This mass disappearance of jobs has been an underappreciated driver of New York’s population loss, estimated by the Census Bureau at 336,677 from April 2020 to July 2021 - a 3.8% decline that trailed only San Francisco’s 6.7% among large American cities. For the city to thrive, it needs to provide opportunities both for those who can take their laptops and run and those who can’t. For them (that is, us), the shift to hybrid offers many benefits.īut most New Yorkers aren’t white-collar workers. This represents money saved by those office workers, not to mention time saved because of less-frequent commutes. ![]() A recent Bloomberg News analysis estimated that office workers are spending $12.4 billion less a year in Manhattan because of hybrid work. That’s less of a decline than in supposed pandemic-era winners like Miami and Austin, but given how much livelier Midtown Manhattan was to begin with, it implies a ton of lost economic activity. The ranking above, compiled by researchers at the University of Toronto and the University of California at Berkeley, shows mobile-device activity in the city’s main office districts (mostly Midtown, but also the Financial District and a little bit of Brooklyn) to be 26% lower than before the pandemic. Tax revenue has held up better than expected, and the city’s office districts have come back to life more quickly than those of most other large North American cities.įor one thing, as home to the world’s largest concentration of office space, it is especially vulnerable to the remote and hybrid work unleashed by the pandemic. It doesn’t seem to be reliving its 1960s and 1970s decline - if it were, housing wouldn’t be so expensive. New York is not “dead forever,” as one investor and internet personality infamously proclaimed in August 2020. They indicate that New York suffered terribly from Covid-19 in 2020, worse than any other large city in the US and worse than any of the world’s other superstar cities, and that it is still struggling. ![]() I recount all this dying in part because mortality rates are actually a pretty good proxy for other, less-easily-tracked aspects of good living. It was also about triple 2020’s national mortality-rate increase of 18%. In percentage terms, possibly a better gauge of the shock the city experienced, the 53.6% mortality-rate increase in 2020 was topped only by the cholera epidemic of 1832 and equaled by the cholera rebound of 1834 (1849, the deadliest year on record in New York, saw yet another cholera wave).
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